30 May 2020

India vs COVID 19 - Battle Dairies

India vs COVID19- Battle dairies

26-05-2020

Personal Hygiene. Not Lockdown. Physical distancing. Not Social distancing. Fewer restrictions. Not    severe restrictions.

We see COVID19 deaths being reported mostly in High Risk Individuals. We did even see some very healthy youngsters go down but such cases are far and few. Majority deaths due to COVID19 are reported in people with Co-Morbidities. Here we can see that we were not able to make sure that the high risk individual do not get affected or need not do something that raises their risk of getting infected. Lockdown was very necessary and important when we had the 1st three phases. We could buy some time to beef up our infrastructure and put in processes to deal with COVID19 once lockdown would be lifted. If any one had thought that COVID19 would be defeated by Lockdown was not being reasonable. Lockdown was needed to buy some time. Extending Lockdown, in the present form is no more prudent. Lockdown phase 4 itself has seen common public flouting social distancing norms and people moved from anywhere to everywhere. There is no point in state governments imposing quarantine rules. There is no quarantine for a person living in Delhi who has been moving all across the NCT and similarly a person living in Hyderabad has been moving all across the state without being quarantined. May be both people were asymptomatic hosts spreading COVID19 everywhere. If we see India as one unit, these two together would have affected COVID19 to the same amount and to the same effect as they would have if they travelled between Delhi and Hyderabad. So these quarantines are because states just don’t want more numbers associated to their governments. The everyday scrolling and scrutiny in media has made the states to be risk averse. Be warned, there is not much we can do about COVID19 using quarantine or Lockdown when people are in no mood for. It must made clear that states should feel free to take measures without fear of being blamed for unavoidable COVID19 cases. However, all necessary measures must be put in place to encourage and police Social distancing and personal hygiene. Of course, more efforts should be spent on spreading awareness about the need for personal hygiene and physical distancing.

Much more effort has to be spent in proactively protecting the high risk individuals. Monitoring fewer high risk people would be easier for the governments, philanthropists and NGOs. We should be able to divert the focus from suffering migrants in lockdown to high risk individual post lockdown.

 29-05-2020

China is becoming belligerent. 
Was watching a interview on India Today. Col Ajai Shukla was of the view that the investment and build up of Soldiers and infrastructure along the bother is of no use if we did not push back PLA into their side. He mentioned Chinese having come 3 kms into the Indian side. All panel including General Hasnain who is usually a Pro-government analyst has also expressed the fear that the China is threatening to Cut off India at the Karakoram range. A local security analyst from Ladakh has said that he is was never so afraid ever and never felt the danger so real and close. Government sources seem to suggest that there is no need to act immediately and that like Doklam lasted 71 days and we had a last laugh then. Likewise, we can act slowly and still have a last laugh. That India is acting slowly on mutliple fronts while also engaging at the Diplomatic front.  

India is now surrounded by Hostile neighbour - Bangladesh and Nepal have now joined the Chinese club thanks to indifference of India. I am sure China has bribed the PM of Nepal. He just needed a excuse and we abliged and gave them a perfect excuse. We didn't bother to talk to Nepalese general population or Oppositon. Modi's look East policy was not longer than a wink. India's focus then seems to have shifted elsewhere. How else do we explain such a big failure on our diplomatic front in the East vis a viz Nepal, Bangladesh, China. 

Bangladesh, Vietnam and Thailand have benefited from the global anger against China but India was busy with its internal politics. Who failed India? 

China would be foolish to move an inch more in the current global outrage against china. With it 

1. having other plans in Taiwan and Hongkong where it is taking severe steps to annex both of them or bullying them to towing their line. 
2. 62 countries moving a resolution to investigate its role in COVID19.
3. Commerce feud with Australia after it initiated to move that resolution and later China retaliated by banning its meet hurting Australian Ecomony.
4. USA bent on pinning the blame on China for COVID19.
5. Canada refusing to interfere in Judicial process of scuritinising the role of Huwaei. 

But India would also be fool if it thinks China is not fool enough, that China is incapable of taking the risk, especially in times where every country except China is having an economic meltdown. We should't count on much of international help, in case we may need it, also keeping in mind that we have hostile neighbors on all sides. 

NDTV was called names for telling that its sources reported that Indian soldiers were detained for a while before letting them. All chest beating egoistic people fail to understand that there is nothing wrong in that. It doesn't make Indian soldiers weak. It just means PLA was the first agressor. Now reports that Chinese PLA is 3 kms into Indian territory beyond LAC, and that PLA has been even drawing and bridging roads , bunkers in the Indian side.  Now this is very serious. Proves NDTV was not completely wrong, if not for the part of detention of soldiers. We may never know the truth. I am now sceptical of the courage of Military top management to speak the truth and be indifferent to politics over the past few years. 

30-05-2020

Looks like Mamta Benerjee has tried to score a political populist point by
1. Opening  up temples (with cap of 10 at a time)
2. Announcing to open all offices and work places. 


The GDP growth of 4.2% for FY 2019-2020 was much before COVID19 stuck. Even quarter wise, the GDP has been consistently declining. If not for the government services that grew at 10% and Agriculture that grew at 4 %, every thing else was in a dump. Of course, I seriously doubt if GDP really grew at 4.2%. Electricity consumption is sometimes seen as a metric to assess production growth. It seems suggests a massive drop.
It is official now that we are into a recession now that this quarter was consumed by COVID19. I remember our Finance Minister declaring that India going into a recession is not a possibility. Hmmm.. 

Letter to the Prime Minister on his Letter to the nation on completion of 2 year of his 2nd term. 

I must have written such letter in my 5th or 6th. I didn't have any sense of responsibility then. I could boast and say anything then. I didn't have to talk truth because my marks were awarded not based on facts but my writing abilities.

Apart from the discussion about Chief of Defence Staff, PM Kisan Samman Nidhi, Mission Indradanush - Vaccination campaign, nothing claimed in the letter seems to be anywhere near reality. All of it has been tested by time and the COVID19 times and none of them are either as true on the ground or helpful on the ground.

Please own the problems. Anyone will be willing to won the success. Please acknowledge the problems we are facing.

I don't understand the propriety of patting on one's own back. ( I was never in such a situation), but such distasteful bragging at a time when people are in miserable state, that too bag of lies, is definitely improper. This I know.

Sorry Prime Minister sir. But you have once again let us down by making such a political statement at this point of time and by only addressing your vote bank and no one else.

Good luck to the nation. Grandstanding won't help. Standing with people will.



14 May 2020

One nation one ration card - Portability of Ration cards

"One nation one ration card programme" - a good step in the direction of Uninersal food security.

It will not work in present COVID19 scenario. Everything will be same as it would have been without  this programme. 

I don't think a migrants will carry ration card with them to another state. I guess ration cards will be left with families back home in their native states. Correct me if my common sense is failing me. 

Just in case the government thinks this is a extra ordinary situation, it should take extra ordinary measures like distributing  grains for free. 

No one feels so great to stand in lines for hours and get food which is a basic right. 

If we even care to listen to these migrants, we will know that they will stop feeling restless if they get some cash into their hands. They will stop feeling restless if they get food easily, not after waiting in sun for hours risking to get infected. 


I have an idea..
Just forget about targeted PDS for a few months. 

We can allow former employers to give away reusable food tokens tagged with IDs to labour and other needy employees collected from district administration. Most employers wont eat that grain themselves. 

Monitoring distributors for pilferage and incentivising free distribution with some hinororium will help a little. 

If you can't trust the fair price shops or ration shops,  asign the job to experienced NGOs. I think DMs can manage the task. They can disincentivise hoarding by the non-needy by distributing smaller quantities. A lot of time will be saved that would have otherwise been consumed for precise accounting ( precisse weighing, identifyingbthe beneficiary, making sure the beneficiary is not benefited twice etc would be done away with)

Something like this should have been announced a lot earlier. 
Its sheer apathy and recklessness that is causing migrants to choose to walk back hundreds of kms taking huge risks and causing tremendous loss to the economy. 

May be govt loses a quite a bit of food to those not in need(which can be mininised with proper monitoring). But it does lot of good to the needy and the nation. I am sure the food will not rot.

12 May 2020

I dont lie to myself or cheat myself. That is the respect I give to myself.

I don't think there is any pretence from me as to how I think. I however don't agree to the binaries  tagged to me. I am definitely critical of BJP government on specific points for the specific reasons founded by specific facts and not out of hatred.  As is clear from my post, I am not inclined to wait further. Period. However, I believe to think myself as more patient and more understanding that the average Indian. I may be wrong. But mostly not   .  6 years is a good time to analyse which way the government is going. I however gave myself more time to see if the government was trying to go in a better path given the seriousness of the situation but this speech has more or less shattered my hopes. 
No one asked him to come and announce the amount of package today. If FM was to announce the package over a period of time, she would have as well spelt out the total amount in tomorrow's press brief. 
Yes Self-Reliance or Self-sufficiency in not what I expected to hear. I was expecting concrete steps,  clear and un-ambiguous outline of  lockdown rules, clear and un-ambiguous outline of relief if not stimulus package, clear and unambiguous measures to tackle distress in migrant labour. I am sorry but looks like my expectations were different from yours. I was actually listening. Not just hearing.  
You are free to give more time to him, to those in distress and to the economy in shatters. I don't agree with it. 
PS: I was always critical. Especially of the powerful and the bullies. That has been me since I drew my first breathe. I am not politically inclined or affiliated. I am just philosophically inclined. But I don't lie to myself or cheat myself. That is the respect I give to myself.